Hello and welcome. It doesn’t matter if this is the first Networked presentation
you are viewing, or if you have been watching the whole series, I hope that from
today’s presentation you will gain an insight into what the online world might
look like in a few years time as we look into the future.
It is
interesting to note that the whole networked series is presented online.
Just a year or so ago it would have been hard to imagine that a program
like this would have been attempted – but thanks to the advances in
technology, and the adoption of the internet by Australian Businesses, regular
web-casts such as Networked are a reality.
Just by watching this web cast, you are already in front, and you are not afraid to try new ideas. The fact that you would watch a 30 minute TV show on the internet is still foreign to some. Think back to the introduction of colour TV in Australia in the early 1970’s. Back then many would have asked why we would need colour.
I remember
the introduction of our existing GSM
digital mobile network in the late 1980’s and remember many people
wondering why you would want a mobile phone with you.
These days it is unusual for a business person not to have a mobile.
Over the
next 20 minutes I want to share with you what is available now, what is around
the corner and what we can expect in the not too distant future.
Recently, renowned futurist Nicholas Negroponte visited Australia as a guest of Telstra and presented to a group of business leaders on the digital future. One of the key messages he delivered was that the notion of e-business and e-commerce would become a thing of the past. We would simply refer to it as business and commerce- as it would all be transacted electronically.
Let’s have a look at where we are now
Internet
access is available in most places in Australia, even by satellite for those
remote areas. Permanently connected
internet is available, but for small businesses, a dial-up connection is more
common. The internet is also
available on your mobile. Email
services are available, and the majority of businesses that are connected to the
internet also have an email address. Basic videoconferencing between 2 people
using a cheap desktop camera and software such as Microsoft’s "NetMeeting"
is available, and it even allows you to share files between people.
Basic
trading of goods and services is available to consumers, and last Christmas we
proved that Australians are taking to this in huge numbers stretching our
delivery and fulfilment services to the limits.
Online
banking is a reality, and online share trading is becoming popular.
Clearly the landscape is changing due to the “new economy” brought
about by online services.
Australian’s
also love mobile phones! Over 40%
of us have one, and we expect to be able to be contacted and make calls anywhere
– even underground! I travelled
on the new airport Railway in Sydney recently and was able to chat the whole way
on my mobile! Mobile data services
are also available, and the new WAP or Wireless
Application Protocol phones allow us to interact with the internet while
mobile. Services such as email,
news, and financial information can be viewed on these new phones.
Even today, you can send short text messages via our SMS or short
message service to other GSM phones – allowing you to send and receive
information instantly. Did you know that Telstra
processes more than 800,000 SMS messages every day!
Well that’s a snapshot is what is available today and you may be aware
of some of these, but what I wanted to concentrate on is the exciting world of
what is just around the corner.
Soon we will see the availability of permanent internet access. Technologies such ADSL (short for asynchronous digital subscriber line) will mean that your existing telephone line can be turned into a permanent internet connection. Telstra is running trials of this technology at the moment – and you hear more about this later in the year. Dialup access could be a thing of the past – and as our big pond cable customers know – being always connected has its advantages.
The concept
of electronic trading between businesses – called business to business
eCommerce or simply B2B will become the established way of trading online.
Just as the online consumer trading sites such as eBay
and sold.com allow you to
buy and sell goods on the internet, business grade trading hubs will emerge that
will allow you to select from a huge catalogue of items, check their
availability, and order them online. The
ability to issue electronic requests for information, or respond to electronic
tenders from larger companies will be facilitated through these hubs.
As we are seeing in the united states, large multinational companies such
as Ford, General Motors, and Boeing are moving the majority of their purchasing
online. We can expect this to flow
through to Australian Businesses, and it may be the only way to trade with these
larger companies in the future. Small
businesses will also be able to buy and sell goods and services between each
other – streamlining this activity.
You may
have heard recently about the concept of portals or virtual communities. Sites
such as telstra.com are just that – a virtual community or portal.
Simply they provide a gateway into the rich services and content
telstra.com has to offer. In the
future we will see the development of portals or communities for specific
vertical markets – such as mining, construction, and even small business.
You would access a portal via the internet and be linked to services and
information relevant to you and your business.
As a small business, you would expect to see news relevant to you (such
as GST and cash-flow advice), you would be able to trade online utilising a B2B
trading hub, and access some of the tools I have already outlined.
It may be that a particular industry drives the development of specific
portals to suit their needs or larger organisations develop portals through
which they provide a link to their business.
Portals will drive the development of online communities as similar
businesses will all access the one site. This
area is relevant for businesses of all sizes, and you can expect to see a lot of
activity in this area over the next few months.
Collaboration
tools will become more popular, as eTeams form. Sharing of documents, ideas, information and even
appointments will be done online. If
you are always connected, another member of your team can see if you are
available for a meeting and book you online!
That design you have been up all night working on can be reviewed and
approved by your European client or team as you sleep, and be waiting for you
the next morning.
In our own
group at Telstra we work collaboratively with each other, other teams and our
customers and suppliers. We can
provide secure access to documents, news, appointments and presentations so that
Project teams can be assembled online in a matter of moments, and the whole team
has access to all of the documents, no matter where they are.
One of the
most exciting new developments just around the corner is that of rentable
software applications. We are used
to renting a car, a ladder, or a house. You
may ask why would you want to rent software?
It may be
that you don’t wish to outlay a large expense on buying software that you may
use occasionally, so you can opt to rent the software for a particular project
or purpose. It may be more cost
effective to rent all of your software and let someone else worry about software
upgrades and maintenance.
Telstra are
establishing an Application Service Provider or ASP capability that will allow
you to rent applications online. At
the moment we are running trials of Microsoft Office applications such as Word,
PowerPoint and Excel. The way it
works is that you would simply rent these applications (say on a monthly basis)
and you would only need an internet connection and a browser.
All of the processing is performed in Telstra’s ASP network, and only
the screen changes are sent to your PC. It’s
just like having your keyboard and monitor plugged into a supercharged PC
online. You will here more about
rentable applications and ASP thought the year.
You can also expect that rentable applications relevant to a particular
industry will be hosted on relevant industry portals.
Finally in
the mobile world, the slow data rates available will increase dramatically
through technologies Telstra are introducing such as General
Packet Radio Service or GPRS. Simply
speaking, GPRS will provide a permanent internet connection at greatly increased
speeds. Mobility will become an
attractive option when you want to take your business on the road and stay in
touch.
My
predictions for what we might see just around the corner are….
More
businesses are permanently connected to the internet, Fax numbers will disappear
from business cards and email addresses will replace them.
All businesses will have a web address and more information will be
available while mobile.
Finally,
I thought I would share with you some predictions for the future beyond what we
know today. Much of this hasn’t even happened in the US, but given what is
available now, and what is just around the corner, the future is not that far
away!
It is an
accepted fact that Australia is about 12-18 months behind the US in the
development and adoption of eCommerce. In
the future we will see this gap narrow, as Australian businesses take up
eCommerce services at an exponential rate, and demand more online solutions to
improve their business efficiency.
The
internet will no longer seem foreign, or a competitive advantage as we will all
be using it – it will become a ubiquitous tool just like the telephone.
As anyone
can set up on the internet – the head start that you have now may all but
disappear.
Individual phone numbers and email addresses will be gone from business cards – instead a single identity such as a photo, symbol, logo or phrase will instantly connect us 1 on 1 or 1 to many instantly. We may ‘connect’ to another person – or machine via voice, send picture or transfer information.
We will see
huge advances in the area of mobility. 3G
or third generation mobiles will allow you to access many different services,
even live video from your personal communications device (it may not be called a
mobile phone any more as it will perform many more functions than a standard
telephone). Your 3G device will
become your personal communicator through which all information will be sent and
received.
PC’s will
become faster, but will contain little onboard software – the majority of it
being rented from an Application Service Provider.
Global
broadcasting will be the norm – webcasting may replace regular TV and we will
demand more detailed information on everything we see, even while being
entertained.
In short we
will be able to connect anyone, anywhere, anyhow.
I’d like
to close off with a futuristic example of how a small business might use all of
the things I have spoken about today.
For
example, if your business provides a service – let’s say a plumbing service,
have you considered the efficiencies in allowing your clients to book you
online? By sharing your appointment
book online (not the customer names – but just your availability) this would
allow you to concentrate on what you do best, and streamline the
administration of your business. Take
this one step further, and imagine if you were able to take your PC into the
field with you – and it was permanently connected to the online appointment
book. As the jobs came in, the
system would organise the jobs in a way that makes sense, and allow travelling
time to each job. As you finish a job, you would enter the details in your
communicator, and the financial information (including tax invoice) would be
produced on the spot and would also update your accountant’s records online.
You would also receive the next job on your communicator – in a similar
way the taxis despatch jobs. Does
this seem a bit far out? ….
Well right
now in America, the Coca Cola drivers all have a ruggedized PC – this is a
tablet about the size of an A4 page – a bit like a big Palm Pilot, connected
via wireless technologies to the internet where they receive scheduling and job
information. They can even browse
the web and check email while mobile. If it is happening in America – it
can’t be too far away from being a reality here.
As the
whole of the business community comes online, and is permanently connected, the
opportunities to interact, transact and share information will increase
exponentially. Connection is just
the start – like the opening of a new road.
The value will come from the smart applications and services that are
provided on the road – in this case the internet.
So what
should you be doing now to take advantage of the efficiencies that will come
through eCommerce? And what does it mean for your business?
You have
taken the first step – in being connected – and being open to new ideas –
such as web-casts like this. You
might like to earmark some of next year’s budget to test and trial some of
these new ideas. How about renting
an application online for a month, experiment with a website for your business
and trial some collaborative tools. You
may like to take this further and offer your goods or services online at a
trading hub.
Most of
all, you need to be informed, be prepared for change and embrace it!
I’m
online myself and I can be contacted at www.andrewgrill.com,
but I look forward to seeing you all online in the near future!
Entire text © 2000 Andrew Grill
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